ហេតុអ្វីបានជាអ្នកវិនិយោគចូលចិត្តមូលបត្របំណុលរបស់ Microsoft ជាងរបស់រដ្ឋាភិបាលអាមេរិក?
When investors accept lower yields on corporate bonds than on government debt, it typically signals deep concern about a country’s financial stability. However, that is not the case with two AAA-rated Microsoft bonds that currently yield less than comparable U.S. Treasurys. This rare “negative spread” is not a warning sign of government risk but rather a reflection of unusually strong demand for high-quality corporate bonds.
Under normal conditions, corporate bonds should yield more than Treasurys. Companies carry a higher risk of default, and their bonds are generally harder to trade, meaning they are less liquid. These risks usually require a higher yield to compensate investors. Today, the ICE BofA AAA U.S. Corporate Index shows a spread of just 0.3 percentage points over Treasurys, far below the levels seen during past recessions. This tight spread means that some top-rated bonds, like Microsoft’s, are now yielding less than equivalent government debt.
Mike Riddell, a bond fund manager at Fidelity International, points out that Microsoft’s bonds should yield at least 0.15 to 0.2 percentage points more than Treasurys due to their lower liquidity. Instead, they offer even less. This pricing does not reflect greater safety. While the U.S. government has lost its AAA rating, it still holds unique powers, such as the ability to raise taxes. In contrast, Microsoft, despite having $95 billion in cash and only $40 billion in long-term debt, cannot raise money through taxation.
Some other AAA-rated issuers, such as major universities and charitable foundations, still offer higher yields than Treasurys. This suggests that policy risks, like potential taxation or regulation, may affect some corporate issuers more than others.
One key factor driving these unusual spreads is a supply-demand imbalance. The federal government is issuing a large volume of Treasurys to cover its ongoing deficits, while highly profitable corporations have little need to borrow. As a result, there is less supply of top-rated corporate bonds, making them more expensive relative to Treasurys.
Other contributing factors include the rise of passive index funds that automatically buy what is in the index, regardless of relative value. Investors are also placing more emphasis on absolute yield rather than spread. Pension funds and insurers often focus on swap spreads rather than comparing directly to Treasurys.
While a U.S. default is unlikely in the near future, investors should be cautious. High-quality corporate bonds are offering very little extra reward for the risks involved.
